J. Van Gelder Diffusion

The band comes from the bankruptcy probability on a scale of 0 to 100: every 10 points more double the odds of getting through the year without bankruptcy.

Place inside the band: half the bankruptcy probability, half how the company does against its sector peers (NACE 46, micro). Better than this share of them on solvency 65%, liquidity 33%, profitability 48%, growth against the median 33%. That is performance, not lower risk; the band itself always comes from the probability.

Bankruptcy probability: model pd-v3.202610021621, computed on 03-10-2026. The model learns from Belgian bankruptcies and reads the registers, the annual accounts and the gazette.

Ceilings: negative or zero equity, a heavy loss, a special KBO legal situation and a missing filing 59 (two missing 44), an ongoing judicial reorganisation or an ending 24. Financial strength does not count in the score.