The higher the Checked score (0 to 100), the smaller the chance that the company goes bankrupt within twelve months. That chance sets the band, from Critical to Excellent, and within the band how the company does against its sector peers counts too. With a low score, agree a shorter payment term, an advance or security.
Insufficient figures
A score requires measurable solvency, liquidity and profitability.
Bankruptcy probability: Elevated
Filing: One annual filing is missing
Bankruptcy probability within 12 months
Bankruptcy probability
It is the chance that the company goes bankrupt within twelve months, estimated from the registers, the annual accounts and the Belgian Official Gazette. At 0.2%, about 2 in 1,000 comparable companies go bankrupt. The higher it is, the shorter the payment term to agree.
5.4% Elevated
0%0.5%1.5%4%10%≥ 25%
About 5 in 100 comparable companies go bankrupt within 12 months (an estimate).
Last 24 months12-2024: 8.7%01-2025: 13.7%▲ +5.0 percentage points vs 12-202402-2025: 13.7%● unchanged vs 01-202503-2025: 14.0%▲ +0.3 percentage points vs 02-2025highest value04-2025: 13.5%▼ -0.5 percentage points vs 03-202505-2025: 13.5%● unchanged vs 04-202506-2025: 13.5%● unchanged vs 05-202507-2025: 13.5%● unchanged vs 06-202508-2025: 1.7%▼ -11.8 percentage points vs 07-202509-2025: 1.7%● unchanged vs 08-202510-2025: 1.7%● unchanged vs 09-202511-2025: 1.7%● unchanged vs 10-202512-2025: 1.6%▼ -0.1 percentage points vs 11-2025lowest value01-2026: 1.6%● unchanged vs 12-202502-2026: 1.6%● unchanged vs 01-202603-2026: 1.7%▲ +0.1 percentage points vs 02-202604-2026: 1.7%● unchanged vs 03-202605-2026: 1.7%● unchanged vs 04-202606-2026: 1.7%● unchanged vs 05-202607-2026: 1.8%▲ +0.1 percentage points vs 06-202608-2026: 3.1%▲ +1.3 percentage points vs 07-202609-2026: 3.4%▲ +0.3 percentage points vs 08-202610-2026: 5.4%▲ +2.0 percentage points vs 09-202611-2026: 5.4%● unchanged vs 10-2026
Comparable companies, two years later
In July 2024, 12,322 companies had the same profile as GERMAN PULPAPER has now. Each dot stands for 31 companies, two years later.
90.3%
were still trading
8.6%
stopped another way
0.7%
went bankrupt
Micro
20 years or older
solvency 30% or more
a small loss
Another 0.5% stopped without a precise date, possibly only after those two years.
The bankruptcy probability of GERMAN PULPAPER itself is higher: 5.4% within 12 months. It rests on far more data about GERMAN PULPAPER than the profile alone.
Test of the method
The method was tested on the 497,447 companies of July 2024. Each company was given the bankruptcy share of the same profile a year earlier, in July 2023. The expectation was that 1.6% would go bankrupt within 24 months. In fact 1.7% went bankrupt.
The companies in ten equal groups, from the lowest to the highest expected share
Group
Expected
Actual
1
0.2%
0.2%
2
0.3%
0.5%
3
0.5%
0.6%
4
0.7%
0.8%
5
0.9%
0.9%
6
1.3%
1.5%
7
1.6%
1.8%
8
1.8%
1.8%
9
3.0%
3.1%
10
5.6%
6.2%
A company that went bankrupt had a higher expected share than one that kept going in 74.5% of comparisons. The level depends on the economy. In a year with more bankruptcies than the year before, the actual share is higher than the expected one.
This is an observation about 12,322 companies, not a prediction for GERMAN PULPAPER. The sector does not count, because the KBO no longer lists a sector for a company that has stopped. By sector, mostly the survivors would count, which would paint too rosy a picture.
Credit check for an amount and term of your choice
The company filed its last 6 accounts on average 70 days after the deadline. The Belgian median for financial year 2024 was 4 days before the deadline, and 38% of all filings were late.
Searched, nothing found (1)
neutral · No strike-offs in the KBO publications
That holds for every publication since 2021.
KBO publications
Recent changes
Incorporation
published on 08-11-2005 · Gazette deed