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ARCO

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Public limited companyfounded 2002active for 24 yearsBrandstraat 22, 9160 Lokeren, BelgiumKBO/BCE: BE 0476.905.052

Financials · financial year 2025, full format

2025 annual accounts filed 28 days after the deadline Filed on 28 August 2026, deadline 31 July 2026 (7 months after the close on 31 December 2025, Companies Code art. 3:10). Source: NBB, 2026-00446593.

Annual accounts 2025 filed on 28-08-2026 at the NBB all 23 filings

Turnover
€28.9m▼ 25.2%
2024 · €38.6m
EBIT margin
0.4%▼ 1.6pp
2024 · 2.0%
Net result
-€344,244
2024 · €534,058
Working capital
€7.0m▲ 12.1%
2024 · €6.2m
Trend over the years

2021 to 2025, 5 financial years 2018 to 2025, 8 financial years

The operating result for 2025 is 84% lower than in 2024 and the lowest since 2021. It is the fourth fall in a row.

Turnover€28.9m 2025 Operating result€0.1m 2025 Net result-€0.3m 2025

Turnover is what the company sold, the result is what was left of it. A loss stands below the zero line.

Use the arrow keys on the chart for the figures per year.

The sector band is the middle half of the companies in Specialised construction activities (NACE 43). A quarter of them sit below it, a quarter above. Each year counts only accounts in the same format, and only where there are at least 30. The dashed line is the median. There is a sector band for net result, equity, total assets, working capital, solvency, current ratio, return on assets (ROA) and staff (FTE).

Every figure with its change against the financial year before
favourable unfavourable
Line20182019202020212022202320242025
Turnover€20.2m-€20.8m▲ 2.8%€23.9m▲ 14.9%€32.1m▲ 34.2%€38.2m▲ 19.3%€36.8m▼ 3.8%€38.6m▲ 5.0%€28.9m▼ 25.2%
Operating result€2.0m-€2.1m▲ 5.5%€1.5m▼ 30.9%€4.9m▲ 232%€4.8m▼ 2.2%€4.0m▼ 16.9%€0.8m▼ 80.2%€0.1m▼ 84.2%
Net result€1.4m-€1.5m▲ 4.5%€1.1mabove the sector's middle half▼ 27.9%€3.6mabove the sector's middle half▲ 234%€3.6mabove the sector's middle half▼ 0.2%€2.9mabove the sector's middle half▼ 21.2%€0.5mabove the sector's middle half▼ 81.4%-€0.3mbelow the sector's middle half
EBIT margin10.0%-10.3%▲ 0.3pp6.2%▼ 4.1pp15.3%▲ 9.1pp12.5%▼ 2.8pp10.8%▼ 1.7pp2.0%▼ 8.8pp0.4%▼ 1.6pp
Equity€5.3m-€6.7m▲ 26.1%€7.8mabove the sector's middle half▲ 16.3%€7.4mabove the sector's middle half▼ 4.6%€9.4mabove the sector's middle half▲ 26.0%€12.2mabove the sector's middle half▲ 30.6%€12.8mabove the sector's middle half▲ 4.4%€12.4mabove the sector's middle half▼ 2.7%
Total assets€9.2m-€11.2m▲ 20.8%€12.5mabove the sector's middle half▲ 12.3%€17.6mabove the sector's middle half▲ 40.1%€22.9mabove the sector's middle half▲ 30.3%€22.0mabove the sector's middle half▼ 3.8%€30.0mabove the sector's middle half▲ 36.1%€25.3mabove the sector's middle half▼ 15.6%
Debt€3.9m-€4.5m▲ 13.5%€4.7m▲ 6.3%€10.1m▲ 113%€13.5m▲ 33.3%€9.8m▼ 27.6%€17.2m▲ 75.8%€12.9m▼ 25.2%
Working capital€3.7m-€5.0m▲ 35.7%€5.9mabove the sector's middle half▲ 17.8%€5.4mabove the sector's middle half▼ 8.2%€9.8mabove the sector's middle half▲ 82.1%€12.3mabove the sector's middle half▲ 25.3%€6.2mabove the sector's middle half▼ 49.6%€7.0mabove the sector's middle half▲ 12.1%
Solvency57.4%-60.0%▲ 2.6pp62.1%above the sector's middle half▲ 2.1pp42.3%within the sector's middle half▼ 19.8pp40.9%within the sector's middle half▼ 1.4pp55.6%within the sector's middle half▲ 14.6pp42.6%within the sector's middle half▼ 13.0pp49.1%within the sector's middle half▲ 6.5pp
Current ratio2.00-2.21▲ 0.212.32within the sector's middle half▲ 0.121.55within the sector's middle half▼ 0.771.82within the sector's middle half▲ 0.272.53within the sector's middle half▲ 0.711.58within the sector's middle half▼ 0.951.91within the sector's middle half▲ 0.33
Return on assets (ROA)15.6%-13.5%▼ 2.1pp8.7%within the sector's middle half▼ 4.8pp20.7%above the sector's middle half▲ 12.0pp15.9%above the sector's middle half▼ 4.9pp13.0%above the sector's middle half▼ 2.9pp1.8%within the sector's middle half▼ 11.2pp-1.4%below the sector's middle half▼ 3.1pp
Staff (FTE)92.9-93.6▲ 0.8%85.5above the sector's middle half▼ 8.7%102above the sector's middle half▲ 19.3%110.9above the sector's middle half112.7above the sector's middle half▲ 1.6%113.4above the sector's middle half▲ 0.6%
above within below The sector band is the middle half of the companies in Specialised construction activities (NACE 43). A quarter of them sit below it, a quarter above. Each year counts only accounts in the same format, and only where there are at least 30.
Balance-sheet composition
2025 in colour, 2024 as the grey bar beneath
Assets €25.3m
Fixed assets €10.7m ▼ 18.3%
Current assets €14.6m ▼ 13.5%
Equity and liabilities €25.3m
Equity €12.4m ▼ 2.7%
Debt €12.9m ▼ 25.2%
Debt's share of the balance-sheet total falls from 57.4% to 50.9%. Equity and debt are lower.
Key figures and ratios
2025 value · change against 2024
EBITDA
€876,742▼
2024 · €1.4m
Cash flow
€408,062▼
2024 · €1.2m
Quick ratio
0.99▲
2024 · 0.77
Debt to equity
1.04▼
2024 · 1.35
ROE
-2.8%▼
2024 · 4.2%
Interest coverage
1.79▼
2024 · 8.97
Debt ≤ 1 year
€7.7m▼
2024 · €10.7m
Debt > 1 year
€4.8m▼
2024 · €6.0m
Income taxes
€0▼
2024 · €252,049
Customer credit
71 days▲
2024 · 48 days
Supplier credit
71 days▲
2024 · 53 days
Staff costs
€9.7m▲
2024 · €8.9m
Green means a favourable move, even when the figure itself falls, as with debt or debt to equity.

Staff

social balance sheet
Item31-12-202131-12-202231-12-202331-12-202431-12-2025
Employees at the balance-sheet date106110115119114
full-time921009810192
part-time1410171822
in full-time equivalents102.10111.1115.2108.7
Average over the year, in full-time equivalents102.7-110.9112.7113.4
On a permanent contract106109115119114
Joined29-616228
Left25-565833
Agency workers, average number--3.671.4
Training hours--1,8471,320233

Source: social balance sheet in the 2021 to 2025 annual accounts

Overdue debts

tax and social security
Item20212022202320242025
Overdue social security (RSZ) debts----€0

Source: notes to the 2021 to 2025 annual accounts (statement of debts)

Securities and guarantees

on own assets and for others
Item20212022202320242025
Debts secured on the company's own assets--€1.9m€9.5m€4.8m
Pledge on the business--€23.1m-€27.4m
Pledge on other assets, amount secured---€27.4m€27.4m
Carrying value of the other pledged assets---€11.0m€9.0m

Source: notes to the 2021 to 2025 annual accounts (statement of debts and off-balance-sheet rights and commitments)

Investments

fixed assets acquired
Item20212022202320242025
Tangible fixed assets€372,481€355,072€713,712€1.0m€1.3m
Intangible fixed assets€0-€259,667--
Financial fixed assets--€0€11.0m-
Depreciation and write-downs of the year€331,227€333,487€378,516€628,612€752,307

Source: notes to the 2021 to 2025 annual accounts (statement of fixed assets)

Auditor

fees

The auditor is BV MOORE AUDIT.

Item20212022202320242025
Fee for the audit--€8,500€15,703€13,209
Other work by the auditor----€5,003

Source: notes to the 2021 to 2025 annual accounts (relations with the auditor)

Subsidies and aid

Flemish government

2022 to 2024 · 5 entries · €21,192 awarded · €21,530 paid
Year Entries AwardedPaid
2024 1 €1,874€1,874
2023 2 €2,177€2,515
2022 2 €17,141€17,141
Schemes
1 entry · €12,592 · €12,592 paid · Vlaams Energie- en Klimaatagentschap
2 entries · €6,226 · €6,564 paid · Fonds voor Innoveren en Ondernemen
1 entry · €1,874 · €1,874 paid · Departement Werk en Sociale Economie
1 entry · €500 · €500 paid · Departement Werk en Sociale Economie
Annual accounts
Filed annual accounts As filed with the NBB · 2025 against 2024 · 86 lines
Balance sheet Code20242025
Assets
Total assets20/58€30.0m€25.3m▼
Fixed assets21/28€13.1m€10.7m▼
Intangible fixed assets21€0.3m€0.1m▼
Tangible fixed assets22/27€1.8m€1.6m▼
Land and buildings22€0.009m€0.007m▼
Plant, machinery and equipment23€0.1m€0.06m▼
Furniture and vehicles24€0.8m€0.5m▼
Leasing and similar rights25€0.7m€0.8m▲
Other tangible fixed assets26€0.2m€0.2m▼
Financial fixed assets28€11.0m€9.0m▼
Affiliated companies280/1€11.0m€9.0m▼
Participating interests280€11.0m€9.0m▼
Other financial fixed assets284/8€320€320=
Amounts receivable and cash guarantees285/8€320€320=
Current assets29/58€16.9m€14.6m▼
Stocks and contracts in progress3€8.7m€7.1m▼
Stocks30/36€3.6m€3.6m▼
Goods purchased for resale34€3.6m€3.6m▼
Contracts in progress37€5.1m€3.5m▼
Amounts receivable within one year40/41€5.8m€6.2m▲
Trade receivables40€5.1m€5.6m▲
Other amounts receivable41€0.7m€0.7m▼
Cash at bank and in hand54/58€2.4m€1.2m▼
Deferred charges and accrued income490/1€0.04m€0.05m▲
Equity and liabilities
Total equity and liabilities10/49€30.0m€25.3m▼
Equity10/15€12.8m€12.4m▼
Contributions10/11€0.06m€0.06m=
Capital10€0.06m€0.06m=
Issued capital100€0.06m€0.06m=
Reserves13€12.7m€12.4m▼
Non-distributable reserves130/1€0.006m€0.006m=
Legal reserve130€0.006m€0.006m=
Distributable reserves133€12.7m€12.4m▼
Amounts payable17/49€17.2m€12.9m▼
Amounts payable after more than one year17€6.0m€4.8m▼
Financial debts170/4€6.0m€4.8m▼
Subordinated loans170€1.0m€1.0m▲
Leasing and similar obligations172€0.5m€0.5m▼
Credit institutions173€4.5m€3.3m▼
Amounts payable within one year42/48€10.7m€7.7m▼
Current portion of amounts payable after more than one year42€3.5m€1.0m▼
Financial debts43€1.0m€1.0m=
Credit institutions430/8€1.0m€1.0m=
Trade debts44€3.4m€2.6m▼
Suppliers440/4€3.4m€2.6m▼
Advances received on contracts in progress46€1.6m€1.5m▼
Taxes, remuneration and social security45€1.2m€1.2m▲
Taxes450/3€0.08m€0.09m▲
Remuneration and social security454/9€1.1m€1.1m▲
Other amounts payable47/48€0.01m€0.3m▲
Accrued charges and deferred income492/3€0.5m€0.4m▼
Income statement Code20242025
Operating income70/76A€38.8m€27.5m▼
Turnover70€38.6m€28.9m▼
Change in stocks of work in progress, finished goods and contracts in progress71€0.06m-€1.6m▼
Other operating income74€0.1m€0.1m▲
Non-recurring operating income76A€0.04m€0.01m▼
Operating charges60/66A€38.1m€27.4m▼
Goods for resale, raw materials and consumables60€23.2m€13.1m▼
Purchases600/8€23.3m€13.1m▼
Change in stocks: decrease (increase)609-€0.02m€0.02m▲
Services and other goods61€5.2m€3.6m▼
Remuneration, social security and pensions62€8.9m€9.7m▲
Depreciation of and write-downs on formation expenses, intangible and tangible fixed assets630€0.6m€0.8m▲
Write-downs on stocks, contracts in progress and trade receivables: additions (reversals)631/4-€0.007m€0.1m▲
Other operating charges640/8€0.1m€0.09m▼
Non-recurring operating charges66A€0€0.006m▲
Operating profit (loss)9901€0.8m€0.1m▼
Financial income75/76B€0.2m€0.02m▼
Recurring financial income75€0.2m€0.02m▼
Income from financial fixed assets750€0.02m€0.004m▼
Income from current assets751€0.1m€0.005m▼
Other financial income752/9€0.02m€0.01m▼
Financial charges65/66B€0.2m€0.5m▲
Recurring financial charges65€0.2m€0.5m▲
Debt charges650€0.2m€0.5m▲
Profit (loss) for the period before taxes9903€0.8m-€0.3m▼
Income taxes67/77€0.3m€0▼
Taxes670/3€0.3m€0▼
Profit (loss) for the period9904€0.5m-€0.3m▼
Profit (loss) for the period to be appropriated9905€0.5m-€0.3m▼
Appropriation of the result
Profit (loss) to be appropriated9906€0.5m-€0.3m▼
Transfer from equity791/2-€0.3m
From reserves792-€0.3m
Transfer to equity691/2€0.5m€0▼
To other reserves6921€0.5m€0▼
Social balance sheet
Average headcount (FTE)9087112.7113.4▲

The notes to these accounts have 99 items, including the statement of assets and debts, the cost breakdown and rights and commitments. You find them in the accounts filed with the NBB.

Source: Annual accounts 2025 at the NBB, filed on 28-08-2026.

Line20182019202020212022202320242025Change
Operating income70/76A---€32.5m€39.7m€38.1m€38.8m€27.5m▼ 29.2%
Turnover70€20.2m€20.8m€23.9m€32.1m€38.2m€36.8m€38.6m€28.9m▼ 25.2%
Change in stocks of work in progress, finished goods and contracts in progress71---€0.3m€1.4m€1.3m€0.06m-€1.6m-
Own construction capitalised72---€0-----
Other operating income74---€0.2m€0.09m€0.09m€0.1m€0.1m▲ 14.3%
Non-recurring operating income76A---€0€0.02m€0.006m€0.04m€0.01m▼ 73.2%
Operating charges60/66A---€27.6m€34.9m€34.2m€38.1m€27.4m▼ 28.1%
Goods for resale, raw materials and consumables60---€17.5m€23.7m€22.0m€23.2m€13.1m▼ 43.5%
Purchases600/8---€17.9m€24.5m€22.4m€23.3m€13.1m▼ 43.7%
Change in stocks: decrease (increase)609----€0.4m-€0.8m-€0.4m-€0.02m€0.02m-
Services and other goods61---€2.9m€3.3m€3.1m€5.2m€3.6m▼ 30.0%
Remuneration, social security and pensions62---€6.8m€7.3m€8.5m€8.9m€9.7m▲ 8.7%
Depreciation of and write-downs on formation expenses, intangible and tangible fixed assets630€0.3m€0.4m€0.4m€0.3m€0.3m€0.4m€0.6m€0.8m▲ 19.7%
Write-downs on stocks, contracts in progress and trade receivables: additions (reversals)631/4---€0.003m€0.05m€0.07m-€0.007m€0.1m-
Other operating charges640/8---€0.06m€0.07m€0.08m€0.1m€0.09m▼ 12.1%
Non-recurring operating charges66A----€0.2m€0.02m€0€0.006m-
Operating profit (loss)9901€2.0m€2.1m€1.5m€4.9m€4.8m€4.0m€0.8m€0.1m▼ 84.2%
Financial income75/76B---€0.08m€0.1m€0.05m€0.2m€0.02m▼ 86.4%
Recurring financial income75€0.1m€0.07m€0.08m€0.08m€0.1m€0.05m€0.2m€0.02m▼ 86.4%
Income from financial fixed assets750---€0.07m€0.1m€0.04m€0.02m€0.004m▼ 73.7%
Income from current assets751-----€0.01m€0.1m€0.005m▼ 95.6%
Other financial income752/9---€0.009m€0.04m€4€0.02m€0.01m▼ 29.9%
Financial charges65/66B---€0.04m€0.04m€0.1m€0.2m€0.5m▲ 210%
Recurring financial charges65€0.03m€0.03m€0.04m€0.04m€0.04m€0.1m€0.2m€0.5m▲ 210%
Debt charges650€0.01m€0.02m€0.03m€0.04m€0.04m€0.1m€0.2m€0.5m▲ 210%
Other financial charges652/9---€0-----
Non-recurring financial charges66B---€0-----
Profit (loss) for the period before taxes9903€2.1m€2.2m€1.5m€4.9m€4.9m€3.9m€0.8m-€0.3m-
Income taxes67/77€0.7m€0.7m€0.4m€1.3m€1.3m€1.1m€0.3m€0▼ 100%
Taxes670/3---€1.3m€1.3m€1.1m€0.3m€0▼ 100%
Profit (loss) for the period9904€1.4m€1.5m€1.1m€3.6m€3.6m€2.9m€0.5m-€0.3m-
Profit (loss) for the period to be appropriated9905€1.4m€1.5m€1.1m€3.6m€3.6m€2.9m€0.5m-€0.3m-
Line20182019202020212022202320242025Change
Assets
Total assets20/58€9.2m€11.2m€12.5m€17.6m€22.9m€22.0m€30.0m€25.3m▼ 15.6%
Fixed assets21/28€1.9m€2.0m€2.2m€2.4m€1.1m€1.7m€13.1m€10.7m▼ 18.3%
Intangible fixed assets21--€0.3m€0.2m€0.2m€0.4m€0.3m€0.1m▼ 55.4%
Tangible fixed assets22/27€0.8m€0.9m€0.8m€0.8m€0.9m€1.3m€1.8m€1.6m▼ 13.0%
Land and buildings22---€0.02m€0.01m€0.01m€0.009m€0.007m▼ 26.5%
Plant, machinery and equipment23---€0.1m€0.09m€0.1m€0.1m€0.06m▼ 34.0%
Furniture and vehicles24---€0.6m€0.6m€0.8m€0.8m€0.5m▼ 35.1%
Leasing and similar rights25-----€0.1m€0.7m€0.8m▲ 10.6%
Other tangible fixed assets26---€0.1m€0.2m€0.2m€0.2m€0.2m▼ 5.7%
Financial fixed assets28€1.1m€1.1m€1.2m€1.4m€408€0€11.0m€9.0m▼ 18.2%
Affiliated companies280/1------€11.0m€9.0m▼ 18.2%
Participating interests280------€11.0m€9.0m▼ 18.2%
Other financial fixed assets284/8---€1.4m€408€0€320€320=
Amounts receivable and cash guarantees285/8---€1.4m€408€0€320€320=
Current assets29/58€7.4m€9.1m€10.3m€15.1m€21.7m€20.3m€16.9m€14.6m▼ 13.5%
Stocks and contracts in progress3€1.9m€1.9m€2.1m€4.6m€7.0m€8.6m€8.7m€7.1m▼ 18.6%
Stocks30/36---€2.5m€3.3m€3.6m€3.6m€3.6m▼ 1.6%
Goods purchased for resale34---€2.5m€3.3m€3.6m€3.6m€3.6m▼ 1.6%
Contracts in progress37---€2.1m€3.7m€5.0m€5.1m€3.5m▼ 30.9%
Amounts receivable within one year40/41€4.4m€5.6m€6.5m€8.2m€11.3m€7.3m€5.8m€6.2m▲ 7.6%
Trade receivables40---€5.4m€9.0m€4.5m€5.1m€5.6m▲ 9.8%
Other amounts receivable41---€2.8m€2.3m€2.8m€0.7m€0.7m▼ 7.9%
Cash at bank and in hand54/58€1.0m€0.7m€1.0m€2.3m€3.3m€4.4m€2.4m€1.2m▼ 47.6%
Deferred charges and accrued income490/1---€0.02m€0.1m€0.07m€0.04m€0.05m▲ 39.7%
Equity and liabilities
Total equity and liabilities10/49€9.2m€11.2m€12.5m€17.6m€22.9m€22.0m€30.0m€25.3m▼ 15.6%
Equity10/15€5.3m€6.7m€7.8m€7.4m€9.4m€12.2m€12.8m€12.4m▼ 2.7%
Contributions10/11€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m=
Capital10---€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m=
Issued capital100---€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m€0.06m=
Reserves13€5.2m€6.6m€7.7m€7.4m€9.3m€12.2m€12.7m€12.4m▼ 2.7%
Non-distributable reserves130/1---€0.006m€0.006m€0.006m€0.006m€0.006m=
Legal reserve130---€0.006m€0.006m€0.006m€0.006m€0.006m=
Distributable reserves133---€7.4m€9.3m€12.2m€12.7m€12.4m▼ 2.7%
Amounts payable17/49€3.9m€4.5m€4.7m€10.1m€13.5m€9.8m€17.2m€12.9m▼ 25.2%
Amounts payable after more than one year17€0.3m€0.3m€0.3m€0.4m€1.5m€1.4m€6.0m€4.8m▼ 20.4%
Financial debts170/4---€0.4m€1.5m€1.4m€6.0m€4.8m▼ 20.4%
Subordinated loans170------€1.0m€1.0m▲ 3.5%
Leasing and similar obligations172-----€0.07m€0.5m€0.5m▼ 8.1%
Credit institutions173---€0.4m€0€1.3m€4.5m€3.3m▼ 27.1%
Other loans174----€1.5m----
Amounts payable within one year42/48€3.7m€4.1m€4.4m€9.7m€11.9m€8.0m€10.7m€7.7m▼ 28.4%
Current portion of amounts payable after more than one year42---€0.4m€0.8m€0.4m€3.5m€1.0m▼ 70.4%
Financial debts43---€0.3m€0€0.2m€1.0m€1.0m=
Credit institutions430/8---€0.3m€0€0.2m€1.0m€1.0m=
Other loans439---€0-----
Trade debts44€1.1m€1.4m€2.1m€3.4m€4.4m€3.3m€3.4m€2.6m▼ 23.6%
Suppliers440/4---€3.4m€4.4m€3.3m€3.4m€2.6m▼ 23.6%
Advances received on contracts in progress46---€0.005m€2.6m€2.7m€1.6m€1.5m▼ 6.2%
Taxes, remuneration and social security45---€1.6m€2.4m€1.5m€1.2m€1.2m▲ 2.1%
Taxes450/3---€0.9m€1.4m€0.4m€0.08m€0.09m▲ 13.6%
Remuneration and social security454/9---€0.7m€1.1m€1.1m€1.1m€1.1m▲ 1.3%
Other amounts payable47/48---€4.0m€1.7m€0.008m€0.01m€0.3m▲ 25×
Accrued charges and deferred income492/3----€0.08m€0.4m€0.5m€0.4m▼ 13.1%
Line20182019202020212022202320242025Change
Profit (loss) for the period9904€1.4m€1.5m€1.1m€3.6m€3.6m€2.9m€0.5m-€0.3m-
+ Depreciation and write-downs630€0.3m€0.4m€0.4m€0.3m€0.3m€0.4m€0.6m€0.8m▲ 19.7%
Operating cash flow (approximation)€1.7m€1.9m€1.5m€4.0m€4.0m€3.2m€1.2m€0.4m▼ 64.9%
Investment in fixed assets (approximation)--€0.5m-€0.6m-€0.5m€1.0m-€0.9m-€12.0m€1.6m-
Change in cash--€0.3m€0.3m€1.2m€1.0m€1.1m-€2.0m-€1.1m▲ 43.8%

A Belgian filing has no cash-flow statement. These rows are therefore an approximation, derived from the income statement and the balance-sheet moves.

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Historical observation

In July 2024, 830 companies had the same profile as ARCO has now. Two years later, 0.6% had gone bankrupt and 96.5% were still going.

  • Medium-sized
  • 20 years or older
  • solvency 30% or more
  • a small loss
0.6% went bankrupt
2.9% stopped otherwise
96.5% was still going

That fits the bankruptcy probability of ARCO itself: 0.3% within 12 months.

Test of the method

The method was tested on the 497,446 companies of July 2024. Each company was given the bankruptcy share of the same profile a year earlier, in July 2023. The expectation was that 1.6% would go bankrupt within 24 months. In fact 1.7% went bankrupt.

The companies in ten equal groups, from the lowest to the highest expected share
Group Expected Actual
1 0.2% 0.2%
2 0.3% 0.5%
3 0.5% 0.6%
4 0.7% 0.8%
5 0.9% 0.9%
6 1.3% 1.5%
7 1.6% 1.8%
8 1.8% 1.8%
9 3.0% 3.1%
10 5.6% 6.2%

A company that went bankrupt had a higher expected share than one that kept going in 74.5% of comparisons. The level depends on the economy. In a year with more bankruptcies than the year before, the actual share is higher than the expected one.

This is an observation about 830 companies, not a prediction for ARCO. The sector does not count, because the KBO no longer lists a sector for a company that has stopped. By sector, mostly the survivors would count, which would paint too rosy a picture.

Latest 10 of 23 filings with the National Bank
Financial year Type Filed Reference Document
31-12-2025 full format 28-08-2026 2026-00446593 PDF
31-12-2024 full format 04-08-2025 2025-00355627 PDF
31-12-2023 full format 04-07-2024 2024-00222914 PDF
31-12-2022 full format 04-07-2023 2023-00198691 PDF
31-12-2021 full format 27-06-2022 2022-20102655 PDF
31-12-2020 full format 28-06-2021 2021-26200391 PDF
31-12-2019 full format 20-08-2020 2020-42900503 PDF
31-12-2018 full format 26-07-2019 2019-38400049 PDF
31-12-2017 full format 06-06-2018 2018-16400161 PDF
31-12-2016 full format 06-07-2017 2017-29000064 PDF

Show all 23 filings

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